RoC*RoI — Risk of Reconviction × Risk of Imprisonment — is the actuarial risk score attached to almost every Corrections file in New Zealand, and it appears in front of judges at sentencing and the Parole Board at every hearing. It is built entirely from static history, so it never moves when someone changes. This guide explains what goes into the score, what its output actually means, where it is used, and what defence counsel and support people can do when the number looks bad.
Key Takeaways
- RoC*RoI is New Zealand Corrections' actuarial estimate of reconviction and reimprisonment risk, normed on NZ offender data
- It is built from static history only — age, conviction record, offence seriousness — and predicts 2-year and 5-year risk
- Output is a risk category with a percentile ranking; completed from records, with no interview
- The score cannot reflect rehabilitation: treatment completion changes the person, not the number
- Dynamic assessment (DRAOR, VRS, SAPROF) and structured professional judgement are how change is evidenced
What Is RoC*RoI?
RoC*RoI stands for Risk of Re-Conviction × Risk of Imprisonment. It is New Zealand's primary actuarial risk prediction tool, developed specifically for the NZ corrections context and normed on the New Zealand offender population rather than adapted from overseas data. In plain terms, it answers one question: given everything recorded about this person's history, how likely are they to be reconvicted — and reimprisoned — over the next two and five years, compared with other offenders?
📌 Type
Actuarial and static. It scores recorded history only — nothing that requires an interview, and nothing that measures how someone is doing now.
📌 Purpose
Predicts general reconviction and reimprisonment risk over 2-year and 5-year horizons, validated against NZ reconviction data.
📌 Output
A risk category (Low / Medium / High) with a percentile ranking against the NZ offender population, completed from official records.
Because it is records-based, RoC*RoI functions as the baseline screen that travels with an offender through the system: it appears in pre-sentence reporting, in parole assessment material, and in the file the NZ Parole Board reads before every hearing.
What Goes Into the Score: Static Factors Only
The score is derived from historical variables that cannot be changed through intervention. The core inputs are:
The Static Inputs
- Age at first conviction: earlier first conviction correlates with higher reconviction rates
- Number of prior convictions: more convictions indicate an established criminal pattern
- Offence seriousness: more severe historical offending predicts future severity
- Demographic factors: including gender, with the model normed within NZ population groups
Every one of those inputs is fixed. A 19-year-old with ten prior convictions and a 45-year-old first-timer score differently no matter what either of them does next week — because the model only reads the record, not the person. That design is what makes RoC*RoI statistically reliable, and it is also exactly what makes it incomplete.
What the Score Actually Says
RoC*RoI output is a category with a percentile: where this person sits relative to the NZ offender population on predicted reconviction and reimprisonment. A moderate classification typically corresponds to roughly 50–70% probability of reconviction within 5 years. High and low bands sit either side, always anchored to the same two horizons — 2 years and 5 years.
Two cautions matter when reading the number. First, it predicts general reoffending — any reconviction — not the seriousness of any future offence. Second, it is a population statistic: it says what happened to similar people on average, not what this individual will do with support, supervision and treatment in place.
Where RoC*RoI Appears: Sentencing and Parole
In the sentencing process, the score informs Corrections' pre-sentence material and gives the judge a population-based anchor alongside the more detailed assessments before the court. In the parole process, the Board sees the score as part of the offender's file — and the statute tells the Board exactly how to read it. Section 7(3) of the Parole Act 2002 requires any undue-risk assessment to consider both the likelihood of further offending and the nature and seriousness of any likely subsequent offending. RoC*RoI speaks to the first dimension only.
When any person is required under this Part to assess whether an offender poses an undue risk, the person must consider both (a) the likelihood of further offending; and (b) the nature and seriousness of any likely subsequent offending.
That division of labour is the key to understanding the score's role: actuarial data frames the likelihood question, while dynamic evidence — treatment progress, release planning, supervision support — answers the seriousness-and-management question. Our guide to NZ Parole Board decisions shows how those pieces combine into an outcome, and the Board's decision-making process covers what the panel reads before a hearing.
What RoC*RoI Cannot Do
The score's greatest strength — statistical stability — is also its ceiling. Because it reads static history only:
The Static Ceiling
- No change detection: an offender who completes intensive treatment scores exactly the same as before the intervention
- No protective factors: strong whānau support, stable housing and employment do not move the number
- No severity weighting: it predicts any reconviction, not violence or seriousness specifically
- No current context: it does not see release address, programme engagement or community ties
That is why best practice pairs the actuarial screen with dynamic instruments: the DRAOR tracks re-entry risk week to week, the VRS measures violence risk and treatment change, the LS/CMI maps criminogenic needs, and the SAPROF documents protective factors with the same rigour. Structured professional judgement then integrates the picture. We cover each instrument in our guide to risk assessment instruments used by NZ Corrections, and prepare parole risk assessments and sentencing risk assessments that add exactly this dynamic layer.
Responding to a High RoC*RoI Score
A high score cannot be argued away — but it can be contextualised, and the dynamic picture around it can be built. For defence counsel and support people, the practical playbook looks like this:
Read the Score Correctly
Identify the band, the percentile and the horizon — and note what it does not say about seriousness or current circumstances.
Evidence Change
Commission dynamic assessment: DRAOR trends, VRS stage-of-change, programme completion records — the material the static score cannot see.
Address the Driver
Where substance use drives the offending, an independent AOD assessment links treatment gains to relapse management and the conditions the court or Board can impose.
Complete the Picture
Protective factors, reintegration supports and supervision plans turn a risky-looking number into a managed, supervised release proposal.
Precision AOD Solutions prepares independent, court- and Board-accepted AOD assessments and risk reports for the record — the dynamic evidence layer that gives a static score its real-world context.
Case Example: A High Score, Properly Contextualised
Consider a typical parole matter (an illustrative example; details changed and combined from common patterns). A prisoner with a high RoC*RoI band reaches his third hearing. The static score has not moved since sentencing — it cannot. What has changed is everything around it: a documented DRAOR trend showing sustained gains, completion of an intensive AOD programme, an independent assessment connecting the dependency treatment to a concrete relapse-prevention plan, and an approved address away from former associates.
The panel now has the two statutory dimensions in front of it: the unchanged likelihood statistic from history, and current evidence about seriousness and manageability. The score sets the floor of the conversation; the dynamic evidence determines the outcome. Release is directed with abstinence and testing conditions — the machinery the Board can attach under the Parole Act.
Need the Dynamic Layer for a Risk Score?
Precision AOD Solutions prepares independent AOD assessments and structured risk reports for the record — pairing the actuarial baseline with the change evidence courts and the Board can act on.